Oil prices are soaring They are much less

By the time running, the economy eventually almost pass for a giant funfair. Bankers play bumper cars and bing! Policies are in the large wheel, rising into the air before declining with the stimulus and bankruptcies. Markets are similar to the giant swing up in pain and down in fear. And consumption would be the great eight, with a sombre and slow ascent then a dizzying descent, with cries of horror and fainting. Except that this last image is more hype than reality. First because consumption grew in France of a third party in a decade. Then because that it remains the first support of economic activity undermined by excesses of finance. Christmas sales were resilient, balances began in the frenzy. But why, then, this image of a consumption which sank

Let's start with the numbers. Available consumption indicator more quickly, which is also the most sensitive to the vagaries of the economy, shows a clear trend without any link with the madness of the financial markets since the fall. "Spending of households in manufactured products" mired in effect... for a year. The curve determined by the Insee from its monthly figures shows a slope upward until the end of 2007, followed by a surprisingly regular plateau. It is the bitter fruit not a sudden distrust but of a triple movement: income less quickly, increasing purchasing power eroded by soaring petroleum products, savings reinforced by the growing concern of the French on unemployment since last spring. National accounts quarterly, more complete but later figures, confirm this stability. The Insee forecasters believe, consumption should continue to stagnate during the first half of 2009. It is neither fame nor the disaster. Nothing to do with brushed affecting tables here or there.

Of course, the automakers are penalty (even if the decline of 23 in December compared to a month of December 2007 doped by more than 21, even if the market much more rectifier in Spain or in the United States). Of course, new homes sales slacken (but it is the investment of the French, not consumption). As always, the restorers explain that nothing will more. And the mineral water is sold less well. But, ski area began their season in the euphoria, Orange exploded its sales of iPhone in December and balances, Monoprix has recorded a higher turnover of 10 to its level of last year.

The plateau of consumption is not a dead space, but rather the product of millions of decisions, brutal sacrifices and sudden fads. With a reduced purchasing power and a rising concern, the French arbitrate more and more in their spending. Oil prices are soaring They are much less. Per litre of gasoline is equivalent to 1 euro They are not more but spend money cleared otherwise, for example to buy Cree last phone. Examples could be multiplied to infinity.

The prophets in decay, that speak of "saturation" of the needs for almost a century, want to see the end of the consumer society. They both right and wrong: the crisis accelerates the advent of the throwaway society. On the one hand, there are "forced" expenses or considered as such, facing increasingly heavier: the staple food, rent, insurance, subscriptions (mobile, television, Internet...). And, on the other side, "purchasing power released", in the words forged by researchers of the beeps Institute on behalf of the Leclerc Distributor. There, it is the end of the habits, hunts kept, taboos. To maintain comfort of life, buy light, "maximize well-being" as say economists, the hyperconsommateur chooses constantly and without barriers.

The consumer revolution is a fantastic challenge for the producer. The company advance more and more in the fog. The customer loyalty fades, and with it insured income, future prospects, the possibility of investment. Firms who were unwilling or unable to comply with the standards of the zero stock or the "lean production", flexible production, suffer. It is much easier to be hyperconsommateur to become hyperproducteur. Here also, the crisis will turn upside down the deal.