but not really the coherence of the whole

It is not a surprise, it was to make a burst. Three years after stating that he thought the presidential "and not only by shaving," Nicolas Sarkozy formalizes his candidacy in the 2007 election. Or rather its candidacy to apply internal UMP, since the members of the party are invited to choose their favorite on 14 January. "My answer is yes I am candidate", he said this morning in an interview with the regional press, which was fuité yesterday giving an impression a little haphazard at the start. "I want to offer another vision of the France (...), create a new relationship with the French," he said. This calendar is the direct result of the Royal "effect": Nicolas Sarkozy has decided to speed up the tempo, history of not allowing his opponent to dig the gap during the month of December, where she could benefit from the momentum created by its victory in the PS.

And, in fact, the next barometer TNS Sofres for "Le Figaro Magazine" already looks very harsh for the President of the UMP: lose 2 points in a month, 48 of the French wishing "to see play a role in the months and years to come", while Segolene Royal would win 6, 61. This is not to say that the emergence of the Socialist candidate, that he has long underestimated, complicates the task of Nicolas Sarkozy. And not only because she is a woman. Occupy the media field, give a young political language, renovate the practice: it endorsed the analysis of Nicolas Sarkozy on the discredit of the French policy, but it does not hesitate to go further than him in the audacity and the taking of distances with the system in place (participatory democracy, independence party...). And is not, for the moment at least, the repeated prompts from the President of the UMP to cross the railway on the land of ideas which hinder: she did FIW his trademark, convinced that the French want not a catalogue of measures but it reaffirms "values".

External military threat, Nicolas Sarkozy is also of the Interior. The questioning, Dominique de Villepin in mind, have redoubled of criticism lately, ingéniant to emphasize the "nervousness" of the candidate, who is in fact left lead to respond sharply to Michèle Alliot-Marie at the last national Council of the party. Recent days, after repeated calls of Nicolas Sarkozy to the union and the decision to hold internal discussions (read page 16), the Prime Minister has rather solid game. But he flew last night for a trip to Africa, as if the announcement of candidacy of Nicolas Sarkozy was a non-event. The President of the UMP would have his campaign early disturbed by the agenda of the questioning, stall on the calendar of the President of the Republic: or Jacques Chirac will not clarify its intentions prior to February-March 2007.

Expanding its base

This difficulty "collecting" his camp, be added to Nicolas Sarkozy to broaden its electoral base. In the interview he confirmed his intention to apply to "those who have experienced hardships, feel fragile or who think that"nothing is never for them"". But for the moment, it is not able to give real substance to this desire: it juxtaposed signals to the electorate (on immigration and security essentially) with measures inspired by the left (enforceable rights to housing, relief of loads limited for companies that are not sufficiently increasing wages...), but not really the coherence of the whole.

Since 2002, Nicolas Sarkozy has been constantly on the offensive to appear as the only one to succeed Jacques Chirac right: when entering in the field, it appears for the first time on the defensive.