What is certain is that all roads lead to Norilsk

The President of the Federation of Russia, Dimitri Medvedev, had to go obviously. Merciless confrontation lasting several years between the Russian magnates of mines and metals does not create the mining and metallurgical giant national that the Kremlin called for its wishes. At a meeting last week with billionaire Oleg Deripaska, who control more than 60 of capital of Rusal, world aluminum heavy weight, and Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, the new Executive Director of Norilsk, number one global nickel and Palladium, he made them part of the decision to suspend the project to merge the two companies.

The main reason for the failure of the Russian consolidation driven by the State has been the inability of the three most influential shareholders of Norilsk Nickel Rusal, Interros, the oligarch Vladimir Potanin and Metalloinvest holding company, the holding company mining and metallurgical magnate Uzbek Alisher Burkhanovich Usmanov agree.

The Government has waived use the strong manner to impose the transaction to the three keys of the case. But, according to analysts at Troika Dialog, this is only part remission. It is not excluded that Norilsk Nickel, now led by a relative of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, married with a part of the firms concerned.

Metalloinvest could be the case. Property of another close to Vladimir Putin, which, in passing, was an ally of Potanin for preempting Rusal, this holding had already studied in the past a friendly merger with Norilsk. At the time, the operation failed because of the very high recovery of. However, since its highs at end of May 2009, the capitalization of Norilsk has melted by 85 to $ 8.7 billion.

In contrast, the heavy debt of Metalloinvest could represent an unexpected obstacle. "The problems associated with debt management are virtually impossible to resolve without the assistance of the State and the intervention of a company Moreover provided liquidity", consider the experts of Troika Dialog.

Debt

It is certain that, at this stage, Rusal, faced with serious problems of debt, is out of the game. According to the Russian press, the aluminium producer must repay some 8.1 billion (out of a total of 16.3 billion) by December. 16.3 Billion, 7 billion are foreign banks, which include BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Natixis and Calyon.

But for Rusal, the urgency is to find $ 2.8 billion in the shortest time to complete the purchase of 25 of the shares in Norilsk Nickel to Mikhail Prokhorov. Same Mikhail Prokhorov could exercise its option to reconvey to Rusal the 14 it holds of the latter. Participation estimated at $ 7.4 billion.

If magnate chose to get rid of Rusal shares, it would technically put the company in default of payment, indicate analysts from Fairfax. However, it is unlikely that it succeeds in the end.

Foreign banks could grant to Rusal a moratorium on payments of a few months, or even more, and the Russian State financial institutions transform their loans in a substantial participation in its capital. They already potentially put the hand on the 25 of Rusal in Norilsk, as such participation had been offered late November by the producer of aluminum in a credit of $ 4.5 billion guarantee. What is certain, is that all roads lead to Norilsk. Furthermore, Didier Julienne, the Director of the Paris Office of this group, will soon leave society.