Towards a new round of monetary screws on the Continent. As expected by investors, the European Central Bank (ECB) has left yesterday its main unchanged interest rates to 3.25 at the end of the meeting of the Board of Governors (read also page 6). But its President, Jean-Claude Trichet, also suggested that rates would be increased at its next meeting, on 7 December, which would be the sixth increase since the ECB began to meet them, in December 2005.
In a speech to the press, Jean-Claude Trichet has delivered on two occasions the word of "vigilance", which became the signal of an imminent rise in rates. Since December, he indeed used each time before raise rates at the next meeting. Stressing that European monetary policy remained "accommodating", Jean-Claude Trichet said that "act firmly and quickly was essential for the stability of prices in the medium term". If growth is strong, inflation risks, related to a possible lift oil and wages, prices are clearly "rising", he said. "Inflation should start rising in the months to come, and in early 2007," he said. The consumer price index should be greater than 2, the changes desired by the ECB in 2006 and "in 2007" probably.

The prospect of an increase in the rate in December was not surprised the market operators, which already betting on such tightening, and were mainly of the guidance on the policy that will lead the ECB next year. However, Jean-Claude Trichet would not give guidance in this area. "We will do what it takes to ensure the stability of prices", he says, emphasize that it would be more precise at the December meeting, since the proposal institution will then have its economic projections for 2007 and 2008.
Tensions on the bond
After his statements, operators have continued to build on a new higher rates in Europe in the first half of 2007, as evidenced their investments on the Euribor contract, believing that the ECB should bring its rate to 3.75 against inflation risks, before a pause in the middle of the year because of a slowdown in the economy. "Mr Trichet refused to give guidance on the intentions of the European Central Bank beyond December, the game of guessing on its monetary policy will continue", said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING, which still provides for a new rate hike next year.
December European monetary tightening was widely anticipated, the euro progressed slightly against the dollar yesterday afternoon in 1,2773 dollar ( 0.009), after having greatly increased during the past sessions, and even touched 1.28 dollar Wednesday. It must be said that the greenback may also benefited American statistics published yesterday.
The announcement of higher labour costs in the United States, stronger than expected, by 3.8 in the third quarter from 4.9 in the previous quarter, on a background of stagnation of productivity ( 0) over the same period, has thus resurrected fears on inflation. With the bond market has suffered. Strong increase since October 23, the price of U.S. 10-year bonds fell yesterday. Their performance, changing to the inverse of the price, and earned 3 basis 4,592 points late in the afternoon. European bonds followed the movement, the performance of the French OAT to 10 years for 3 basis also points to 3,754.