000 and construction 104000 are be spared

It is far from certain that the recovery can take place before the end of the year. In an interview with the "New York Times", aboard the presidential Air Force One"Boeing en route to the Ohio, Barack Obama himself recognized this weekend. It is true that the new thrust of us unemployment, which rose from 7.6 to 8.1 in one month, its highest level since 1983, with the loss of 651.000 jobs in February, cools the hopes of recovery. Even if this new net loss of jobs is slightly lower than that of previous two months (681.000 and 655.000), we had not seen such a pace of decline in employment since the end of the 1940s. According to economists, the $ 787 billion stimulus plan, passed by Barack Obama on February 17, should not have impact on unemployment before the fourth quarter of 2009.

"Our belief and our expectation is that we will have all the pillars of recovery in place this year." "But the time it takes for that resumption translate effectively in a stronger labour market depend on a range of factors", held this weekend Barack Obama. Among these factors, he has spoken of the need to convince other countries to take similar actions and pointed out "weaknesses in Europe, which are actually more important than here and chopping to us and have an impact on our markets".

This presidential caution contrasts with the relative optimism of the forecast of a decline in the GDP limited to 1.2 in the 2009-2010 budget, which implies a beginning of recovery in the second half. According to the projection of economists, the unemployment rate should be within 8.5 on average this year and pass the Cape of 9 in 2010. But the acceleration, stronger than expected, the rise of unemployment fears an extension of the recession. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the impact of the stimulus package should, however, reduce the unemployment rate of 0.5 to 1.2 points from the last quarter.

12.5 million unemployed

In total, the number of unemployed now reaches 12.5 million in the United States, most of the sectors are now affected. According to figures from the Department of employment, the economy lost 4.4 million jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, including more than 50 in the last four months. More than half of the job losses are now services ( 375,000 positions in February), even if the manufacturing industry ( 168.000) and construction ( 104,000) are be spared. Only numbers of public administration and education and health services have been preserved. Most economists do not expect a reversal of trend on the front of the employment before the end of the year.

This new surge of unemployment comes at the time where the Obama administration must cope with stock market gloom, with a 20 fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index since January 20 ( 31 percent since the election of November 4), the largest fall for a new President elected for ninety years. According to the magazine "Business week", "at least with Wall Street, Obama honeymoon is over". But for the President's entourage, there is no surprise because, as he so often repeated, the economic climate will deteriorate before it can be to see an improvement.