The g-20 the early April in London will be a fiasco. Like many of the famous "restoration of the trust" has relied on this meeting, the consequences will be disastrous. For recovery but for politicians also that will make the evidence of their disability and their irresponsibility eyes cameras from around the world. Including and especially Barack Obama, bearer of great hopes at home and outside.
The meeting will fail because the dispute appear to be three weeks from the beginning, insurmountable. There is the North-South dispute, which barely heard. The flows of private money invested in emerging countries fell $ 928 billion in 2007 to 466 billion last year. They should down to 165 billion this year, according to the Institute of international finance. Huge plans for revival of rich countries pump all capital. Money goes south to the North, the opposite of economic logic and the interest of developed countries, for which the emerging are the opportunity for the future. The South is doubly hit: it sees exports crumble, 28 for the Brazil in 2008, 25 for China. lack of capital to invest and grow its domestic demand. The most affected will be the poorest, as pointed out by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the IMF. The 390 million people in sub-Saharan Africa should see their living standards fall by 20, according to Unesco. Should "act urgently", application DSK. We bet that London does that emerge fine words.

There are disputes over the terms of "the new financial regulation. The Franco-German insistence against tax havens and "hedge funds" butera Anglo-Saxon avoidance, Wall Street and the City aligned strategy for ruser. And to say: this is not the emergency! The Finance patient is sub-claquant and you become lost to him relearn how to drive! This is not the time.
There are especially the great dispute, one which deals with the anti-crisis strategy, for the time, radical. Larry Summers, economic adviser to Barack Obama, opened fire in explaining that the economy will not leave because "the application world" is insufficient. It is necessary that each country contributes to the much more heavily, especially countries in surplus, Germany, Japan, China. America spends $ 780 billion, its deficit is 10 of the GDP, it cannot do more.
The reasoning is perfectly correct: the American consumer, yesterday pillar world growth not only dog stores but it savings now. It must be that other countries take the relay and, in the Emergency Department, their States. The Keynesian lesson must apply to the world economy. Alister Darling, Chancellor of the British Exchequer, redoubled the shooting yesterday against continental Europeans, explaining that stimulus, plans on investment, would have no effects fast enough. He also, with a deficit of 8 of GDP, cannot do much more. Under fire, the Europeans responded with a dry tone that announces not compromise. Angela Merkel, who is accused in it to do too much, has indicated that the German recovery plan was sufficient. It represents 3.4 of GDP, not far from that of the United States, to 4.8 of GDP, according to the IMF. Reply little value in truth: it is as a whole that Europe is not enough. The ammunition in the stimulus measure accounts deficit: from 2007 to 2009, he dug 11 points of GDP in the United States, only 3.5 points in the euro area, calculates Patrick Artus of Natixis. European recovery is three times less. Summers is correct. Yes, but it is in the Anglo-Saxon countries that demand collapses, adds Artus, three times faster. A point across.
And the Europeans to go on the offensive: the crisis has come to you, you pay! And start to finally put order in your bank! Bank of America, Madoff, AIG... Finally stop the series of disasters. As long as the finance is not served, the stimulus is blocked. Fair reasoning.
Barry Eichengreen, Professor at Berkeley, us has traced a path of compromise: "A better plan of recovery in Europe, a better plan of financial rescue in America." For the moment, difficult to believe.