4 billion aid promised by the IMF in October

Eastern and Central European countries who were called to rescue the international monetary Fund (IMF) will live these next weeks crucial negotiations for their financial stability. The Serbia, where the IMF mission is expected on March 10, announced Tuesday that it would need $ 2 billion in excess of 530 million loan that the IMF granted on January 16.

Since then, the Serbian currency, the dinar, has continued to unscrew against the euro, due to a persistent distrust of investors who fear more and more a "tsunami" on the financial system of Eastern Europe. An economic adviser to Mirko Cvetkovic, Prime Minister, said recently that it would be impossible to respect the main conditions agreed with the Fund in the granting of the loan, a deficit of 1.5 of GDP, because the dramatic slowdown in growth in recent weeks would likely bring the deficit to 3. Belgrade now table on growth of 0.7 against 3 initially planned. Last year, Serbian growth had reached 7...

Policy of austerity in Hungary

However, this general slowdown does not prevent the Hungary, another new customer of the IMF, to pursue a policy of austerity in accordance with the instructions of the Fund and Brussels. Budapest, seen last year as the most fragile economy of Europe, a title which now has a dozen contenders, is committed to reducing its deficit to 3 of GDP this year. In return, the European Union, the World Bank and the Fund have promised aid of 20 billion euros.

After the Hungarian Prime Minister, Frenec Gyurcsany, announced last week a realignment in depth of tax and social systems, with savings of 730 million euros, the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, said Wednesday that the Hungary was its commitments and had adopted "the good measures the levels facing high external and public debt". Brussels should therefore pay no problem late March the second tranche of its $ 6.5 billion assistance. A positive signal which leaves augurer that the IMF does not rechignera to continue the payment of its assistance to the Hungary.

Ukrainian divisions

The situation is more problematic for the Ukraine. Kiev is strong, while for the next month the release of the second instalment of $ 1.9 billion of 16.4 billion aid promised by the IMF in October. The Fund, whose mission is expected in Kiev next week, has already contributed 4.5 billion, but requires an almost balanced budget 2009. A challenge since the fall of tax revenues due to a dramatic contraction in activity in Ukraine and dissension between the President, Viktor Yushchenko and his Prime Minister, Yuliya Tymoshenko. An adviser to the President has criticized the Government, which says that the deficit will not exceed 3 of GDP this year while it is expected to reach 10, taking into account the needs of local banks recapitalization. All in a context compounded by the risk of default of payment of the Ukraine led & Standard Poor's to degrade significantly, on Wednesday, the note of sovereign debt. European banks are exposed to 30 billion euros in Ukraine.