4 billion for Caisses d'Epargne Crédit Mutuel 7

BNP Paribas was one of the few winners of the financial crisis. Until the fall, all seemed to smile to the point that the Belgian State had come late September pick him up for Fortis in trouble. But a huge grain of sand came to drag in this scenario that seemed perfectly oiled. A decision of justice against her brutally stopped what appeared doomed to become the best operation of external growth of a French Bank to date. On 12 December, the Court of appeal of Brussels gave reason to the small shareholders of Fortis and froze the sale process, pending the convening of a General Assembly. With the key, as seen Wednesday, a rejection of accuracy of the operation by the shareholders.

Will this unfortunate epilogue be the high point of a particularly difficult period for BNP Paribas For two months, the group indeed decreased its pedestal. He has lost about 40 of its value while he had crossed the crisis without too many case previously, with a few other groups such as HSBC and Santander. But end of the year, bad news are gone. Substantial losses in October and November markets led the Bank to warn markets that its net result will be negative EUR 1.4 billion in the fourth quarter a first since the creation of the group in 1999. A misfortune never arriving alone, the case Madoff caught him requiring him to announce a potential loss of EUR 350 million.

Finally, and perhaps especially, BNP Paribas has suffered in recent months of nagging on solvency concerns, deemed too low analysts compared with those of its competitors, especially British, with the ratio of hard equity, the famous "tier-1", exceeded 10 after their rescue... In the aftermath, most of the banks of the continent have increased their capital, even if dilute their shareholders. BNP Paribas has held many preferring to issue a total of $ 5.1 billion of preferential shares which will endorse the State. What a priori leave on the right foot even without Fortis. In all cases, BNP Paribas think, considering that the obsession with the "core tier-1" lived, markets is being finally realized that too want to raise capital in the banks, they could no longer make their profession of lender.

Failure Fortis, if there is a big disappointment, has its advantages for BNP Paribas, in the claim including portage or funding risk illiquid assets related to the operation. And then, the Bank remains profitable with net profit EUR 3 billion in 2008 and surely more in 2009; solid since it is part of the institutions still rated with HSBC, Santander or BBVA; and diverse, in terms of activities and settlements. Remains however to be leaders to reassure the markets, FARC teams on a new project, and find a new impetus. Because the failure of the resumption of Fortis Bank, first Bank, Belgian firm a market who could have become, in his words, his "domestic third market", after the France and the Italy. For BNP Paribas, this is a challenge.

Indeed, the Group has need to strengthen its base "retail". Compared to its competitors, BNP Paribas modest rest retail banking in size in France even if it is profitable. In 2007, revenues reached 6 billion euros in France against 7 billion for Société Générale, 7.4 billion for Caisses d'Epargne, Crédit Mutuel 7.6 billion and 16 billion for the Crédit Agricole Group. The new movement of current concentration may even accentuate the phenomenon. Indeed, Caisses d'Epargne and Banques Populaires prepare to merge, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale come to announce a partnership in the management of assets which reflects a strategic axis between the two groups closing the door to an OPA of BNP Paribas on the Société Générale , finally Dexia should run closer to La Banque Postale. The growth of BNP Paribas will therefore come from abroad. The difficulty for its leaders will be to find the rare bird meet their criteria and conducive to a real industrial project acquisition.