6 the month previous but less did the consensus 0

Inflation was on the menu of the markets, yesterday, with backdrop, the evolution of the policies of the monetary institutions. The macroeconomic data and, especially, the remarks of the President of the Federal Reserve of Chicago were all in contrasts, which probably explains the relatively erratic and finally limited exchange rate movements.

In the United States, the consumer price index decreased by 0.5 in October, above the forecast ( 0.3). Excluding food and energy, the evolution of the prices recorded an increase of 0.1 economists projected on a somewhat more marked by 0.2, stable growth from the previous month.

"Underlying inflation remains, of course, high but the trend is going in the right direction," commented Rob Carnell, an economist at ING, stressing that these statistics can cut short speculation of a possible new increase in the Fed rates.

Yet A quarter rates of a d' un data reinforce hypothesis 5 monetary easing: Federal funds futures contracts show 34 11 previously. The industrial production statistics, published later in the afternoon, support this view. Industrial production is bulging of 0.2 in October after a decline of 0.6 the month previous but less did the consensus ( 0.3), which calls for a cut in rates "during the first half of 2007", according to ING.

Narrow margins on the bond

However, the President of the Federal Reserve of Chicago, Michael Moskow, while acknowledging that the inflation was in the right direction, recalled that the Fed could proceed with further rate rises. The previous evening, the record of the last Committee of monetary policy of the US Central Bank insisted on inflationary pressures. "All members of the Fed agree on the fact that the risks associated with the reduction of inflation to the desired level are of greatest concern." "This means that the Fed is not prepared to implement a strategy of reduction of interest rates", indicate the experts exchange of BNP Paribas about these "minutes".

Given these conflicting signals, the American currency grew very slightly against the European single currency. Yesterday afternoon, 1,2791 dollar for 1 euro, with a high point at 1,2841 dollar and low point had to be 1,2785 dollar, against 1,2815 dollar the previous day. At the same time, the dollar was worth 118,20 yen, 117,98 yen against the previous day. "Statistics show that economic activity was taking place." In addition, the "minutes" of the Fed and the speech of Michael Moskow have focused on the risks of inflation with a bull on the rate bias, so that foreign exchange dealers are struggling to stand despite the decline in inflation, summarizes Murat Toprak, strategist changes for Société Générale. After a decline in late October and early November, the dollar was slightly again are lately. The wait should still prevail while little American flags are expected next week, a decline of activity related to Thanksgiving.

On the bond, the trend has been just as hesitant in the session, the rate in relatively narrow margins. Late afternoon, the U.S. rate in 2 years is tended of 2 points, to 4,840 and the rate to 10 years in 3 basis points to 4,664. For its part, the French OAT to 10 years has advanced 1 point, 3,776, as the German Bund and maturity, to 3,739, despite the reassuring inflation statistics published in the morning for the euro area. In line with expectations, the consumer price index increased by 0.1 in October. Rhythm annualized, it stood at 1.6 his more low level since the month of February 2004.