They had been established on the basis of growth between 0

Social Summit plan storm, loans to automobile, aid to the press, premiums in overseas: the measures announced by the Government since the beginning of the year suddenly increased State spending planned for 2009. End of January, Eric Woerth, Minister of the Budget and public accounts, had announced a forecast budget deficit of EUR 86.8 billion for this year. But he warned since this figure would be identified and that the public deficit (State, local authorities and social security) would exceed the 4.4 of GDP planned. The update should take place very soon: the reduction of income tax required to present a new budget collective, the fourth since this fall, before the Parliament. Matignon has announced that it would be defended by the Council of Ministers as early as Wednesday.

Revision of the rate of growth

The accounts of the State will be also updated based on new forecast of growth, which will be presented on 9 and 10 March in Brussels. They had been established on the basis of growth between 0.2 and 0.5 in 2009. A review of 1 point, which would be a minimum, would lead to a widening of government deficits between 9 and 10 billion euros, the majority assumed by the State. "In view of the volatility of VAT and corporation tax, the revenue of the State to reduce of the order of EUR 5 billion." "Spending, they grow close to $ 8 billion euros", said Gilles Carrez (UMP), rapporteur of the Budget to the National Assembly. In total, the State deficit would be very "far from achieving the 100 billion euros", he warned. A hypothesis that Bercy does not confirm. "The calculation of the new budget is far from being completed," replies the entourage of Eric Woerth.

Side expenses, loans issued to Renault and PSA represent an additional envelope of EUR 6.5 billion. Unlike made financing to banks, he is essentially direct loans from the Treasury which will degrade the accounts of the State in 2009 ("Les Echos" from February 10). They did add, however, the public deficit to GDP, European accounting instrument of the stability pact.

5 of GDP

The social measures announced last week are the second large cheque. They represent 2.6 billion, which should however exempt 1.4 billion in respect of interest paid by banks and 450 million that could be funded by the family allowance funds (150 euros for the beneficiaries of the allocation of school bonus). The Bill for the State would be close to 850 million euros, which part (social investment fund) would be disbursed as in 2010. It still should be added the aid to the press (200 million over three years), the cost of 600 million of loans guaranteed by the State after the storm and aid to the overseas (at least 200 million this year). "The situation will not improve." "The real question is whether what margins of manoeuvre it remain us when the needs will be even more important," said Philippe Marini (UMP), rapporteur of the Budget in the Senate.

On social security, Eric Woerth has already announced a deficit of at least EUR 15 billion in 2009, the advance 12.6 billion. Unedic towards a budget close to balance (after a surplus of nearly $ 5 billion in 2008), and the regimes of supplementary pensions, the social accounts are them also aggravate the deficit, which should therefore approach, or even exceed, the 5 of GDP.