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Between 1997 and 2007, the real estate market has experienced a continuous rise in prices, one of the longest cycles and dynamic never observed. The cost per square metre has more than doubled over this period ( 142), while the number of business cards increased a thousand per year. There were still between 28,000 and 26,000 real estate agents at the time where "soft landing" of rising prices belatedly arrive.
2008: declining first year with indicators
In 2008, according to the Fnaim, the number of transactions dropped by at least 15, from 700,000 in 2007 less than 600,000 in 2008. Sales of new homes, mostly on plan, real estate developers themselves are frozen 79 400 in 2008, against 127 400 in 2007, a historical decrease of 38 (the largest decline since thirty years); with a time of flow increased from 11 to 21 months in a year. Prices, the decrease was 3.1 national average, according to the market Observatory of the former of the Fnaim (National Federation of real estate). The financial and banking crisis does not explain it only this change of position. The market is confronted with the very low capacity for the purchase of households, the increase in unemployment, to the tightening of credit conditions and the decline in real disposable income gross household. According to Jacques Friggit, an economist in the real, "over the period 1965-2000, the increase in the price of housing has been phase with that of revenues." Since 2000, real estate prices increased faster, to spend an average of three years of income per household in about five years today. "It should also be noted that, if the estate attracted some entrepreneurs by opportunity, the current period is marked by the closure of many agencies. a necessary rebalancing after years of euphoria.
2009: new fall in the price
Fnaim anticipates a new fall in the price of the former estate of 10 in 2009. It could be limited to 5 Elle For the month of January 2009, the average rates of the credits amounted to 4,78 4.99 in December 2008 and 5.15 in November, according to a study by the Observatory monthly credit housing/CSA. They could get off between 4.25 to 4.5 by summer. In 2011 - 2012, economists at HSBC Bank, recession prices reach 30, the lowest of the downward cycle. Fnaim is not back to the rise in the price considering before 2012.
Outlook: there is still a market
In the former estate, 400 000 housing units had been sold in 1994, at the height of the previous crisis. It is therefore a market, although low. It could be maintained by the sales by necessity (relocation, expansion of the family, mutations, etc.), rents always very high and an overall shortage of housing in France (368 609 units built in 2008, against 437 086 in 2007; what remains far from the objective by the Government of 500,000 new homes per year). Furthermore, the recession in the market of the acquisition should influence for the leasing market. Scellier, formula of rental investment tax amendment very advantageous, has already allowed the developers to see a clear upturn since January 15. And in early February, the Government announced several measures for real estate, as part of its stimulus plan: 100,000 additional housing in the next two years, the doubling of the zero rate loan and development of the Pass-Foncier loan.
(1) Source: Les Echos, January 14, 2009
