The age of the mobile Internet has arrived

For experienced surfers, new wave, as it is not, is always a source of excitement and anxiety. It prepare long, talking about it much and then when it happens, huge... it takes in the figure, while there arises froth a little young, beautiful and tanned, dompte elements without apparent effort. Classic, but unbearable!

It's a bit the impression given by Nokia in the beginning of this year. The much desired wave is here, but this is not it overlaps, all his efforts. At the last World Congress of the mobile, which is held in Barcelona last month, it was not him the star that everyone want and burn to imitate, but the new master surfer of the high-tech, this irritating California Apple.

This yet nearly five years that the Finnish manufacturer prophesying the advent of multimedia mobile, that it multiplies the statements and alliances, since his agreement with Sega in 2003, which marked his entry into the market of mobile video games. And then the acquisition of Loudeye in online music in 2006, and more, in the sharing of photos, communication with the PC, advertising... And, finally, the big bang in 2007 with the acquisition of Navteq, the King of the digital mapping for more than 8 billion. What able affirm may last to its shareholders that Nokia is a manufacturer of mobile phones but an Internet company. That its competitors would call more Motorola or Samsung but also Google, Apple or Microsoft. The age of the mobile Internet has arrived.

This long-sought break is not come to the launch of the iPhone, the phone of Apple in 2007, but the establishment last June the AppStore, available on the mobile application kiosk and that allows to download small software, free or paid, to manage his affairs, his health, his use of the time, play, communicate, purchase of music. If the idea is not new, its ease of use is such and the huge choice users rushed. On Shazam for example, this small free software that allows to instantly recognize any what music happening to the radio or elsewhere. Result in six months, the AppStore has recorded more than 500 million downloads of its some 15,000 to 20,000 applications of this type. It is largely twice that Nokia in received six years he collar butt.

This event, apparently relatively minor, is significant for the industry of mobile telephony. With 1 billion phones sold each year in the world and nearly 4 billion users, sector approaches saturation. Sales of mobile phones in the world (100 billion dollars in 2008) should fall this year for the first time, probably more than 10.

Nokia. The quality of its products, its logistics and industrial power and its marketing effort, he was able to conquer of 60-80 of sales in China, India or Africa. But the crisis and the rapid equipment drying up the source. The last area still in progress is that of "smartphones", these smart phones that allow to correctly access the mobile Internet. Switzerland (1) Credit analysts, sales should grow 28 per year between 2007 and 2010. Still minority in 2007, they should represent 20 of all mobile sold in the world and especially at 50 of the turnover of the profession of here next year!

That's why the success of the AppStore marks a turning point. Not only suggests a new source of revenue for manufacturers and operators, but it also creates a need for these sophisticated and expensive equipment. At the time, is surging. In the wake of Apple, the Taiwanese Asus and Acer, champions of the SFF rolling this week at the Hanover industrial fair, full of new laptops bags. For its part, Google launched the offensive with its Android software. Of course, each accompanied by announcements of the establishment of a similar to the AppStore services booth. Thus, Nokia, which largely dominated the market of "smartphones", will see its cropped parts. Credit Switzerland believes that they should move from 50 in 2007 to 34 in 2009 (compared to 20 for Apple). To stop the erosion and create the same addiction as California rival, Nokia has brought together all its services, far too dispersed, under the umbrella of the unique brand Ovi.

This will be sufficient The extraordinary success of Apple is three strengths. First, the power of the brand, supported by the success of the iPod and its portable computers. Then, its unique jurisdiction integration between hardware and software. It has long been a handicap to the standardization of the personal computing imposed by Microsoft. This experience is now transformed into unique competitive advantage. Finally, third asset, billing platform, developed and popularized with iTunes (music) and then extended to the AppStore and offering him a direct link to the final customer. Above all, he was able to attract thousands of developers of these small software and services by its ultra simple economic model: it takes 30 of the sales commission, leaving 70 to the developer. And as unit costs are very low, often less than 1 euro, customers purchase almost without thinking. It is for these reasons that the template will be extremely difficult to replicate by competitors. As operators also want their share of the cake and will not allow manufacturers to develop services on their backs. Orange has its own platform. He agreed to pass under the fork admit defeat of Apple because his notoriety and his formula is a high traffic and drains for new customers, but will do well with another

"Smartphones" market is in the hands of three actors, Nokia, Apple, the innovator, leader, and BlackBerry, the specialist. The other share crumbs. To maintain its supremacy, the Finns must therefore succeed his transfer to the software and services. The consultants of Forrester (2), its success will depend on the quality of execution and the relations that he will be able build with its operator customers. To do this, it can rely on its brand, its global presence, its research capacity and logistical strength and distribution. But this will not suffice. The challenge is also cultural and organizational. Born in 1865 in the forests of the South of the Finland, Nokia has changed several times of existence. Often in pain, he was able to make the right choices. Required today is more important than previous ones. There are waves that can not miss twice.