Issuers must also make a significant haircut

Market bruisse rumors and announcements of investments and capital increases. Last weekend, for example, the Italian Enel confirmed that such an operation was part of its options according to the information of the daily "Il Sole 24 Ore" referring to a fundraising of 7 billion.

Already, the beginning of this year was hosted on the primary market. More than 37 billion was raised in Europe on February 25, is almost three times more than over the same period of last year, according to Thomson Reuters. In the absence of major size IPO and then convalescent rest convertible market, activity was mainly supported by transfers of shares in the broad sense (34.9 billion). They include the operations of the banking sector largely underwritten by the States, such as the British Bank HBOS.

Surveys are also due to increases in capital with the preferential right of subscription. "The year will be dominated by the operations of this type." "We should also attend accelerated investments but for smaller amounts of market capitalization," thus considers an anglo-saxon banker. For the time being, $ 4.4 billion was accounted for in Europe, but this figure does not account operations not yet completed as the Swiss Xstrata, Lafarge, Saint-Gobain and Faurecia.

"One third of the Futsee."

In total, Thomson Reuters, some 24 billion capital increases were programmed or are underway since early 2009. Goldman Sachs gave, end of January, an estimate of 100 to 300 billion euros for the whole of the year 2009, outside the financial sector. Société Générale table on approximately $ 130 billion, investments included, including some 80 billion in the financial sector. Many investors expect and HSBC announces today (see page 29).

Unlike last year, where the primary market had clearly supported by the banks, this year should be characterised by a greater diversity of sectors. The cyclic particularly mining companies, automotive and real estate (the British Hammerson has been a recent announcement) are among the sectors expected.

Precisely, in geographical terms, the fundraising for the United Kingdom should be many. "Some analysts estimate that one-third of the Futsee could be subject to increases of capital", said Jean-Michel Berling at Calyon.

In France also, speculations abound. "Rumours rustle on about a quarter of the CAC 40 index." "But in the end, only a handful will be finally involved," temper a professional.

Two types of transmitters should arrive on the market. On the one hand, "those for which the primary actions became one of solutions to the liquidity tensions, including those who have not announced losses, said Laurent Morel for Société Générale. "This is what happened last year with General Electric, but it is a relatively new phenomenon in Europe." "In a context where the credit is difficult, companies want to continue to have access to the bond market and seek to maintain their rating" supports Jean-Michel Berling. On the other side, companies seeking to refinance acquisitions:, the spectrum of affected segments could be wider with including the pharmacy, the oil values or services to communities.

Significant discounts

On the stock market, operations are allowed with a highly variable enthusiasm. European companies have indicated their intention to appeal to the market this year increased by 3.5 on average since their announcement, according to Bloomberg. They had decreased by 17 between early 2009 and their communication.

In the light of previous operations, some of the ingredients seem already necessary, as do not take investors by surprise and benefit from the support of a shareholder of reference. Issuers must also make a significant haircut. The last ex-droit haircuts were higher than 40, 30-35 year last at the same time, according to Calyon.